Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres in game one of their series with the Diamondbacks on Friday. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Padres-Diamondbacks Projected Starters
Yu Darvish vs. Merrill Kelly
Yu Darvish (6-3) with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP
Last Start: Yu Darvish picked up a win over the Chicago White Sox last time out, allowing two runs and striking out nine batters. The Padres would win 4-2.
2024 Road Splits: 3-0 on the road with a 2.05 ERA in just 22 innings.
Merrill Kelly (5-0) with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP
Last Start: Merrill Kelly had thrown 72 pitches through five scoreless innings and was set to come out for the sixth, but after a long discussion on the mound, he was pulled from the game.
2024 Home Splits: Merrill Kelly has been solid at home where he is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Diamondbacks Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: +104
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (205)
Moneyline: -122
Over: 8.5 (-112)
Under: 8.5 (-108)
How to Watch Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Time: 10:10 PM ET/7:10 PM PT
TV: Spectrum SportsNet, MLB Extra Innings
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres are poised to secure a crucial victory against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks in their upcoming clash at Chase Field. Despite both teams vying for playoff positions, the Padres hold a distinct advantage that should propel them to success.
Darvish, a seasoned veteran, brings a formidable 3.18 ERA and an impressive 1.06 WHIP to the mound. His ability to strike out batters (74 Ks in 76.1 innings) while limiting walks (only 19) demonstrates his exceptional command and control. This precision will be crucial in neutralizing the Diamondbacks’ potent offense.
In contrast, Kelly, though undefeated, sports a more bloated 3.71 ERA. His underlying metrics are concerning, with a 5.10 xERA and rankings in the 17th percentile or lower in key stats like xBA and barrel rate. These numbers suggest Kelly is due for regression, which the Padres’ powerful lineup is well-equipped to exploit.
The Padres’ offense, boasting a .264 team batting average, the best in the majors, and 187 home runs (11th in the majors), has shown resilience and adaptability in recent games. Their ability to secure victories against tough opponents like the NL West champion Dodgers demonstrates their playoff-caliber performance.
While the Diamondbacks have a slightly worse team batting average (.263 2nd in the majors), their recent inconsistency is a red flag as they lost three out of their last five games. Darvish’s experience in high-pressure situations, combined with the Padres’ more consistent recent form, gives them the edge in this crucial matchup. Expect the Padres to emerge victorious, further solidifying their postseason aspirations.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks are looking for a big win against Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres in their upcoming clash at Chase Field as title aspirations are still up in the air.
Kelly, a model of consistency this season, brings an impressive 3.71 ERA and 1.09 WHIP to the mound. His ability to limit hard contact and induce weak grounders will be crucial against the Padres’ potent lineup. Kelly’s recent shutout performance against the Brewers, allowing just two hits over five scoreless innings, demonstrates he’s in top form heading into this pivotal matchup.
The Diamondbacks’ offense, led by the dynamic Corbin Carroll, is primed to capitalize on their recent momentum in the wild card race. Arizona’s hitters have been finding their stride at the perfect time, and the home-field advantage at Chase Field, where they’ve been formidable, gives them a significant edge.
While Darvish boasts a solid 3.18 ERA, his road performance the Diamondbacks have hit well off him with a team batting average of .254, OBP .316, and SLG .412 with 9 home runs and 25 RBIs giving them some hope in this tough matchup.
Kelly’s ability to rack up strikeouts with 55 strikeouts in 68 innings, could be particularly effective against a Padres lineup that is best in the league with just 6.60 strikeouts per game. Expect Kelly to continue his impressive run, backed by a potent offense and energized home crowd, leading the Diamondbacks to a crucial victory in this high-stakes matchup.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
In this high-stakes matchup between the Diamondbacks and Padres, expect a closely contested battle. Merrill Kelly’s recent form and home-field advantage give the Diamondbacks a slight edge, but Yu Darvish’s experience can’t be discounted. The game will likely hinge on bullpen performance and key at-bats in the later innings. The Padres’ potent offense will be the difference maker in this matchup as Kelly has to yet to face off against them this season and will struggle mightily lineup and especially against Fernando Tatis Jr. (.364, 4 home runs) While both teams have playoff aspirations, the Padres” momentum and Darvish’s ability to limit hard contact should propel them to a narrow victory.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres ML (+104), Under 8.5 (-108)
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