Rays vs. Phillies prediction, odds, pick – 9/11/2024

The Tampa Bay Rays hit the road to take on the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we give you a Rays-Phillies prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.

Rays-Phillies Projected Starters 

Shane Baz vs. Zack Wheeler

Shane Baz (2-3) with a 3.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 55 innings pitched, 46K/23BB, .223 oBA

Last Start: at Baltimore Orioles: Loss, 6 innings, 2 hits, 2 runs, 1 earned, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts

2024 Road Splits: 6 starts, 2.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 32.2 innings pitched, 23K/15BB, .235 oBA

Zack Wheeler (14-6) with a 2.59 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 173.2 innings pitched, 190K/46BB, .193 oBA

Last Start: at Miami Marlins: Win, 6 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts

2024 Home Splits: 15 starts, 2.27 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 95.1 innings pitched, 106K/24BB, .187 oBA

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Rays-Phillies Odds

Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-126)

Moneyline: +176

Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline: -210

Over: 7.5 (+100)

Under: 7.5 (-122)

How to Watch Rays vs. Phillies

Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT

TV: Bally Sports Sun, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win

Shane Baz has been throwing the ball well. He is coming off a start in which he allowed just two runs to the Orioles, and that was his third straight start of allowing two runs or less in a game. Baz needs to have another start like this against a good offense if he wants to give the Rays a chance to win. Tampa Bay has a very tough matchup at the plate, so it will be up to Baz to keep the Rays within striking distance. He has performed well enough to give the team confidence, though.

Tampa Bay will have a tough game at the plate in this game. This means the Rays have to be very good on the mound. The good news is the Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They have a bullpen ERA of 3.70, which is seventh-best in the MLB. They also have the seventh-best WHIP, and eighth-most strikeouts. The Rays need their bullpen to be dominant, and there is a good chance for that to happen in this one.

Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win

Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he will be one of the finalists for the National League Cy Young award. Wheeler has been able to dominate since the beginning of August, as well. In that time frame, Wheeler has a 1.60 ERA through seven starts. In those starts, he has thrown 45 innings, allowed 30 hits, walked just six, and struck out 51. Wheeler is dominating teams at the moment, and I fully expect that to continue in this game against the Rays.

Philadelphia has played some good baseball lately, and they have pretty much locked up the NL East crown. The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are batting .275 in that span. In those games, the Phillies are averaging over nine hits per game while scoring over five runs. When the Phillies record at least six hits, they are 81-41. When they score at least four runs, the Phillies are 73-21. The Phillies should be able to accomplish this, which will help them win this game.

Final Rays-Phillies Prediction & Pick

I like the Phillies to win this game. They are the better team, and I will not bet against Zack Wheeler. The Phillies moneyline is my bet for this game.

Final Rays-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-210)

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