It is the Madrid Derby in Champions League play as Atletico Madrid hosts Real Madrid. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with an Atletico-Real Madrid prediction and pick.
In the first leg of this Champions League round of 16 fixture, Real Madrid struck first. They scored in the fourth minute of the game on a goal from Rodrygo to take the 1-0 lead. Still, Julian Alvarez would tie the game in the 32nd minute of the game. In the second half, Brahim Diaz would break the tie, scoring in the 55th minute to give the lead back to Real Madrid. Antoine Greizmann would have a chance to tie the game again, but it would be saved, and Real Madrid would go on to win the game 2-1.
Here are the Atletico-Real Madrid Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Atletico-Real Madrid Odds
Atletico: +155
Real Madrid: +165
Draw: +250
Over 2.5 goals: -148
Under 2.5 goals: +122
How to Watch Atletico vs. Real Madrid
Time: 4:00 PM ET/ 1:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Atletico Will Win
Atletico has scored in 38 of 42 total fixtures this year, scoring 84 goals over the 42 games so far. That is good for two goals per game so far this year. They have scored 21 goals so far in UCL play, good for 2.33 goals per game in UCL play. Atletico has also scored in eight of nine fixtures so far in UCL play. They have scored in all four of their home fixtures as well, scoring eight goals in their four home fixtures this year.
Julian Alvarez has led the way for Atletico Madrid. He has scored seven goals with an assist so far in UCL play while having ten goals and two assists in La Liga play. Further, Antoine Griezmann has been great this year. He has six goals and two assists in UCL play while he has eight goals and five assists in La Liga play. Angel Correa has also been solid in UCL play, with three goals and an assist. Finally, Alexander Sorloth has ten goals and two assists in La Liga play but does not have a goal or assist in UCL play.
Atletico Madrid has been great on defense this year, allowing 37 total goals over their 42 fixtures. That is good for .88 goals per game overall this year. In UCL play, they have allowed 14 goals over the nine games, good for just 1.56 goals per game. They have allowed six goals over their four home games so far in UCL play, allowing goals in each of of the four games.
Why Real Madrid Will Win
Real Madrid has scored well this year. They have scored in 40 of 44 total fixtures, scoring 101 goals in the process. That is good for 2.3 goals per game this year. In UCL play, they have scored in nine of 11 fixtures and scored 28 goals in the process. That is good for 2.55 goals per game in UCL play. They have not been as good on the road in UCL play. Real Madrid has scored in just three of their five road fixtures, but have scored nine goals in those five road games, good for 1.8 goals per game on the road this year.
Kylian Mbappe has led the way for Real Madrid. He has 18 goals with three assists in La Liga play while also scoring seven goals with an assist in UCL play. Vinicius Junior has also been great in UCL play. He has seven goals and two assists on an expected 4.9 goals so far. He has been solid in La Liga play as well, with ten goals and five assists. Finally, Rodrygo has scored five goals on an expected 2.2 with two assists in UCL play.
Real Madrid has conceded 51 goals over their 44 total fixtures this year, good for 1.16 goals against per game overall. Real Madrid has conceded a fair amount of goals so far in UCL play. They have conceded 16 goals in their 11 fixtures. Still, they have been slightly better on the road. Real Madrid has allowed seven goals in their five road fixtures in UCL play. They also have a clean sheet on the road this year.
Final Atletico-Real Madrid Prediction & Pick
These two teams played a very close game in the first fixture. While Real Madrid has just 51 percent of the possession, they did have more shots and more opportunities. They would have seven shots on target with 13 total attempts. Meanwhile, Atletico had just two shots on target, on six overall shots. Expect Atletico to have more chances in this game. They have been much better at home in UCL play, so take them to get the win here.
Final Atletico-Real Madrid Prediction & Pick: Atletico ML (+155)
The post Atletico vs. Real Madrid prediction, odds, pick for 2025 Champions League appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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