The rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills has been one of the best rivalries in all of sports during the 2020s, with the two AFC elites meeting multiple times in just about every season since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen both emerged as two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Bills have gotten the better of the Chiefs their fair share of times during the regular season, but the playoffs have been another story. Kansas City has sent the Bills home in the postseason in four of the last five years, which is something that will certainly be on the minds of the Bills and their fans coming into this game.
Both the Bills and Chiefs have some flaws this season, but they are both still clearly among the best teams in the AFC and are on the short list of teams that can make a run at the Super Bowl this season. The Bills are coming into the renewal of this rivalry in Week 9 coming off of a very impressive 40-9 win over the Carolina Panthers, while the Chiefs have won five of their last six games and just blew out the Commanders on Monday Night Football.
Both sides of the ball will be critical in this game, but the Chiefs' offense against the Bills' defense features a pair of units who are starting to find their way a bit. However, it is Kansas City who should have a big advantage in this game for these reasons.
Can the Bills disrupt the pocket without Ed Oliver?
Unfortunately, any conversation about the Bills defense coming into this game has to start with the injury to Ed Oliver. The star defensive tackle in Buffalo is now on injured reserve due to a torn biceps injury, and it is arguably the injury that this Buffalo team could not afford to have.
Oliver played in just three games this season, and the defense did not perform up to snuff in the games that he missed. Teams like the Dolphins, Saints and Patriots all had some success moving the ball in the games that Oliver didn't play, and the comfort level of the quarterbacks in those games was a big reason why.
Those quarterbacks were Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler and Drake Maye. Maye is an MVP candidate, but he still doesn't have a resume that stacks up with that of Patrick Mahomes. If Mahomes is able to be comfortable and step up in the pocket, something that he does better than just about anyone in the NFL, it could be trouble for the Bills.
Oliver is also a strong player against the run. The Chiefs are not an explosive rushing attack with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (who is likely to miss this game), but they have run the ball efficiently this season and currently rank ninth in the NFL in rushing success rate and third in total rushing EPA. If they are able to stay ahead of the sticks with the ground game, it will be very difficult to stop Mahomes and company on Sunday.
Kansas City can attack the middle of the Bills' defense
The weakness of the Bills' defense is in the middle, and the Chiefs are perfectly built to exploit exactly that kind of weakness. Matt Milano is back healthy, but he isn't the same player that he used to be a couple of years ago in his prime. Terrel Bernard is also gettable at the linebacker spot, but that's not where the real weakness lies.
The Bills have a gaping hole at safety, so much so that they recently brought back veteran Jordan Poyer to play for the injured Taylor Rapp in the back end. Rapp was uninspiring before going down, and Poyer is long past his prime and is being asked to play a big role in the secondary now.
Cole Bishop is starting next to Poyer, and opposing offenses have gone after him time and time again all season. Expect more of the same from the Chiefs, who have the requisite weapons to exploit the Bills' weaknesses in that area.
Everyone knows about Travis Kelce, one of the best tight ends in league history. The future Hall-of-Famer is past his prime, but he has looked rejuvenated somewhat this season and has always showed up in the big moments against the Bills. With Buffalo's weaknesses over the middle in both man and zone defenses, Kelce should be able to take advantage on Sunday.
Then there is Rashee Rice. The SMU product will be playing in just his third game since returning from a suspension and a knee injury, but he looks like he hasn't lost a step. He is the most explosive weapon that Andy Reid has at his disposal and that has been on display through two games with him in the lineup. Rice has 16 catches on 19 targets in those two games for 135 yards and three touchdowns.
Rice isn't a traditional wide receiver who does all of his work on the outside, either. He spends a lot of the time in the slot or inside in condensed formations and does a ton of work underneath and in the middle of the field. This puts a lot of pressure on the linebackers and safeties to not only cover him, but to get him on the ground after the catch.
The advanced numbers show just how big of a piece Rice is to this offense. The sample size is smaller for him than for the rest of the league, but Rice leads the NFL in target share among qualified players and ranks in the top 20 in EPA per target. When Mahomes throws him the ball, good things happen, and that should continue to be true in this matchup.
The post Why Chiefs' offense is perfectly built to exploit Bills' defense in Week 9 tilt appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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